The Overthinking Meeple

We played it 10,000 times so you don't have to.

Board game arguments, settled by a meeple who overthinks everything: exact math, and bots that play each other for days. Answer first, evidence underneath.

Strategy questions, settled

Arguments from real game nights, answered with exact math or bots that play each other for days.

Simulated
Citadels
Should the Assassin kill the King?
No. Kill the Merchant. A dead King still takes the crown, and once your friends know your habit, you miss.
840,000 bot games plus 87,744 replays of single kills, 2 to 5 players
Simulated
Catan
6s and 8s, or every resource?
Numbers, but never at the cost of a resource. Ore and wheat beat wood and brick if nobody else takes them, and seat one wins most.
Exact dice math plus 239,100 simulated games of base Catan
Simulated
7 Wonders Duel
Which wonder is best, and is going first unfair?
Piraeus. And yes, a little. Extra turns win games, the Great Lighthouse is underrated, and the Statue of Zeus isn't the worst.
Over a million simulated games, wonders dealt at random
Simulated
Dominion
Are the ban-list cards overpowered?
Only Cultist comes close. Witch still beats all five, and King's Court makes a money deck worse.
Nearly 3 million simulated games, King's Court, Goons, Wharf, Rebuild and Cultist
Simulated
Dominion
Which cards are overpowered?
Witch, and only Witch. Every other card in the base game and Intrigue has a counter. One combo beats Witch.
Over 9 million simulated games, all 52 kingdom cards
Simulated
Risk
Which continent should you go for?
South America or Australia. Never Asia or Europe, never the one someone else is taking, and don't turtle.
Nearly 900,000 full games between bots
Simulated
The Fox in the Forest
What's the best card in the deck?
The Fox, the 3. The 11s are overrated and the worst card is the plain 6.
20,000 rounds of strong bots, every card tracked
Simulated
The Fox in the Forest
Humble or victorious: what should you play for?
Start humble, even with a great hand. But a smart opponent will push tricks back on you, so be ready to switch.
Over 250,000 simulated games
Simulated
Risk
Does the defender really have the edge?
No, not in a real attack. Three dice against two favor the attacker, and big battles favor them more.
Exact math: every possible roll counted

Buying guides, overanalyzed

Which box, expansion or version to get next, ranked by what makes the game more fun.

Buying guide
Pandemic
Which Pandemic expansion or version is best?
Legacy: Season 1. On the Brink if you own Pandemic. Each extra Epidemic card shortens an untreated world's life, and Legendary is a real step up.
Exact deck math plus 1.2 million simulated worlds, 11 boxes ranked
Buying guide
Pandemic
Pandemic or Pandemic Legacy?
Legacy, if your group stays the same. A campaign takes 12 to 24 games. Start with Season 1, and watch the Epidemic city.
Exact campaign-length and infection-deck math
Buying guide
Dominion
Which expansion should you buy?
Prosperity. Seaside if it's your first. The box with the strongest cards isn't the best one: a card that wins 96% makes games samey.
All 15 expansion boxes, 441 kingdom piles counted, the strongest cards simulated
Buying guide
Dominion
Base game or Intrigue first?
The base game. Intrigue isn't standalone any more. Intrigue has the better cards, and the only real answer to Witch.
All 52 kingdom cards of both boxes simulated, over 9 million games
Buying guide
2-player games
What's the best board game for two?
7 Wonders Duel. Sky Team if you'd rather win together, Patchwork if you have twenty minutes.
16 games ranked, facts checked against publishers, our own simulations for four of them
Buying guide
Catan
Which expansion should you buy?
Cities & Knights. Seafarers if it's your first. For two players, get Rivals for Catan instead.
Every expansion and standalone Catan of the 6th edition era, checked against the publisher
Buying guide
Carcassonne
Which expansion should you buy?
Traders & Builders. New to the game? Get the Big Box. And yes, most of them got new names in 2025.
All 10 big expansions ranked, tile counts checked against the publisher
Buying guide
Ticket to Ride
Which version or expansion should you buy?
Europe first, then UK & Pennsylvania. Nordic Countries for two players, and whatever you buy, claim the long routes.
19 boxes ranked, every route on the USA and Europe maps counted

How an argument gets settled

  1. The rules become codeEvery edge case from the rulebook, with tests for the weird ones.
  2. Bots play each otherSimple bots, stubborn bots and bots that think ahead, for thousands of games.
  3. We report what held upIncluding where the answer stops being true. Read the method.